Insights Strategy

Gap openings: a decision tree instead of a guess

25 May 2026 · 6 min read

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Illustration for the guide "Gap openings: a decision tree instead of a guess" — a chess board beside a laptop running trading charts.
Strategy guide: Gap-and-go versus gap fill — classifying the gap by cause and size before deciding anything.

Gap-and-go versus gap fill — classifying the gap by cause and size before deciding anything.

Key takeaways

  • Classify the gap by cause: news-driven, sentiment-driven or mechanical.
  • Size relative to average range matters more than absolute points.
  • Wait for the opening range to complete before committing.

A gap is simply overnight information expressed in one print. The useful question is what produced it. A results-driven gap in a single stock has a different follow-through profile from an index gap caused by an overnight global move.

Measure the gap against the instrument's average daily range rather than in points. A 0.3% index gap is inside normal noise; a 1.2% gap is a regime statement and usually sets the day's direction bias.

Structure beats prediction. Let the opening range — the first five or fifteen minutes — complete, then trade the break of that range in the direction of the gap, or the failure of it back through the prior close. Both are rule-based and both have defined invalidation.

Reduce size on gap days. Ranges are wider, spreads are worse in the first minutes, and stops placed at normal distances are hit by ordinary noise.

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