
Streaks are statistically normal. The damage comes from what traders do about them.
Key takeaways
With a 55% win rate, a run of five consecutive losses is not evidence of anything except a normal sample. Traders who understand this in theory still treat it as an emergency in practice.
The correct response is smaller, not bigger. Halving the risk unit during a drawdown keeps you trading your plan through the streak and makes the eventual recovery a matter of arithmetic rather than heroics.
To tell variance from breakage, look at adherence, not results. If you followed the plan on every trade and the losses came from normal stop-outs, that is variance. If half the losses came from unplanned entries or moved stops, the strategy is not being tested at all.
Set a review trigger in advance — for example, a 5% account drawdown — at which you stop, review twenty trades, and decide deliberately. Deciding mid-streak, without a trigger, is how traders abandon working systems at the worst point.
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